2019 IREM/CCIM ECONOMIC FORECAST RECAP

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Article originally posted on HERE on January 28, 2019

Like previous years, it is always fun to do a quick bullet point recap for those that were not able to attend. Here I go:

Jerry Colangelo presenting the Jerry Colangelo Impact Award – The award is “For the individual that has demonstrated Extraordinary Real Estate Accomplishments and Contributions to the benefit of the Greater Phoenix Community.”

One of the key takeaways from Jerry, “Believe in what you believe in and keep pushing and shoving until you get it done!”

Grady Gammage, Jr, 2019 recipient – “Real Estate is about enriching peoples lives…” Great takeaway from Grady!

Here is the link to the discussion: IMPACT AWARD

Keynote Address by Elliott Pollack.  
-We are in the 8th inning for growth
-For all out of state people moving in the US, 7% end up in Arizona!
-There are currently 7M unfilled jobs in US – this is the highest number ever.
-All property types (maybe not retail*) are poised to do extremely well for the foreseeable future

Here is a link to the full discussion: ELLIOTT POLLACK

Industrial Panel takeaways:
-50-250K SF user is what drives the health of the Phoenix industrial market
-$2.3B in property sales in 2018
-Goodyear is turning into a huge data center hub and more announcements to follow beyond Microsoft and Vantage closings in the area

Here is a link to the full discussion: INDUSTRIAL PANEL

Office Panel takeaways:
-Phoenix is about 12.5% vacancy right now
-CBRE is currently tracking over 90 users looking for over 50K SF of office space currently
-Bioscience/Bio Med are leading the healthcare sector

Here is a link to the full discussion: OFFICE PANEL

Apartment/Multifamily takeaways:
-Phoenix was ranked the top market by NACREIF for rent growth and returns in 2018
-The focus of downtown/infill projects have shifted to suburban product because of costs of construction.
—downtown/infill costs are running north of $225/SF
—suburban costs are $130-150/SF
-There was over $5.8B in sales velocity in 2018 for apartments over 100 units in the Phoenix Metro

Here is a link to the full discussion: MULTIFAMILY PANEL

Retail Panel takeaways:
-The best line was to combat Elliott above* – this panel should be called the Elliott Pollack pushback Retail Panel
-Necessity Based/Internet Resistant Retail are doing well
-Before 2008; Phoenix was adding almost 12M SF of new product annually. There has not been anywhere near that amount added. 2018 was less than 1M SF added and it was all pre-leased.
-Cap rates for the typical strip center is in the 7-7.5% range and until interest rates change substantially, this is expected to hold the course.

Here is a link to the full discussion: RETAIL

This is one of the best economic forecasts that can be attended (almost 400 people)!