Daily Top 5
Apartment Rents Forecast to Rise Across All 50 Major Markets
Article originally posted on Globe St on Oct 14 2026
Apartment rents are expected to rise in all 50 major markets RealPage tracks over the coming year, even as a weakening job market tests demand and another 320,000 units enter the market. For investors, the forecast points to a return to rent growth—but not an end to the competition from new supply.
RealPage projects national effective rent growth of about 2.4% from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the third quarter of 2027. Nine of its top 50 metros are expected to post gains of at least 3.1%, while none are projected to see rents decline.
Phoenix ranks among the leaders in projected rent growth despite a substantial construction pipeline. Houston, also facing a large wave of deliveries, is expected to post the weakest increase among the 50 markets.
Rent Growth Leaders Take Shape
San Francisco and Milwaukee lead RealPage’s forecast, with effective rents expected to rise 3.8% in each market. Phoenix follows at 3.7%.
Miami, Cincinnati, Oakland, Los Angeles, Denver and San Diego round out the leading group, with projected increases of at least 3.1%. Together, those nine markets account for 18% of the metros tracked.
Most markets sit below that top tier. RealPage expects 32 metros or 64% of the group, to record rent growth between 2% and 2.9%. Dallas, Austin, Chicago, Boston and Seattle are among them.
Another seven markets, including New York, Washington, D.C., Fort Worth and Atlanta, are forecast to see increases in the 1% range. Houston and San Antonio are the only two below that threshold, with projected gains of 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, as they continue to absorb recent supply additions.
New Supply Keeps Pressure On Owners
The prospect of broader rent growth does not mean the supply challenge is over. RealPage expects roughly 320,000 apartment units to be delivered over the next four quarters, with about 85% concentrated in the top 50 markets.
Dallas has the largest projected pipeline, with more than 20,000 units expected. New York and Newark follow, with approximately 17,000 to 17,500 units each. Phoenix, Houston and Charlotte are each expected to add between 13,000 and 13,500 units.
Other markets face much smaller additions. Memphis, Virginia Beach, Cleveland and Oakland are each projected to receive fewer than 800 units. Pittsburgh and San Francisco are expected to add between 1,000 and 1,100.
Those differences matter when assessing the rent outlook. San Francisco combines a leading growth forecast with relatively few upcoming deliveries. By contrast, Phoenix’s strong forecast comes alongside one of the larger pipelines.
Economic Growth Offers Some Support
The broader economy provides some support for the outlook. Economic shocks have done less damage than initially feared, and revised figures show stronger growth than earlier estimates indicated.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second-quarter GDP growth to an annualized 2.2% in its third estimate, up from the initial reading of 1.5%. It also revised first-quarter growth higher to 2.5%. The Federal Reserve’s September projections put full-year 2026 growth at 2.3%.
That backdrop is encouraging, but the labor market presents a more immediate concern for apartment demand.
Slower Hiring Tests The Outlook
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report showed an increase of just 29,000 jobs. Revisions also weakened the picture for the preceding months: July’s gain of 21,000 became a loss of 10,000, while August’s increase fell from 162,000 to 133,000.
Together, those figures put third-quarter job growth at about 152,000 or roughly 51,000 per month. Wage growth slowed as well, with average hourly earnings rising 3% year-over-year, down from 3.5% at midyear.
For apartment investors, the question is whether demand can keep pace with deliveries as hiring and wage growth cool. RealPage’s forecast points to rent increases across major markets, but the strength of those gains will depend on local supply pressures and the labor market’s course.