Article originally posted on Chain Store Age on Oct 15 2026

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects solid year-over-year growth in holiday sales with seasonal spending reaching a new milestone.

The NRF annual holiday forecast projects that retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% from the same period in 2025, translating to total spending of $1.013 trillion. By comparison, 2025 holiday sales rose 3.1% from 2024 to reach $972 billion, which fell short of NRF’s initial forecast of $1.02 trillion.

Inflation will account for nearly half of this year’s 4.2% gain, according to NRF.  It expects core goods inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025.

“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” said NRF chief economist and executive director of research Mark Mathews. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”

Seasonal hiring

Examining seasonal hiring trends, the NRF said retailers are hiring seasonal workers to meet consumer demand this holiday season. The NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with the estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs retailers filled in 2025.

Similar to last year, NRF analysis indicates retailers remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt, resulting in what the NRF calls a “measured approach” to seasonal hiring.

“Retailers will remain careful but responsive in terms of aligning staffing and other resources with consumer demand across stores, distribution and fulfillment centers, and other operations,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.

General holiday optimism

Several other holiday shopping forecasts also predict solid growth in seasonal consumer spending, although inflation is expected to play a role. U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles and gas, are expected to increase 5.5% year over year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, according to Mastercard Economic Institute’s annual holiday forecast. Online sales are expected to rise 11% year over year and in-store sales by 3.9%., with higher prices accounting for about half the increase.

In addition, Bain & Company forecasts 4.5% year-over-year growth, with more than half of the nominal sales growth coming from higher inflation. And looking at e-commerce, Adobe predicts a strong Cyber Week will help drive substantial 7% year-over-year growth in U.S. online shopping this holiday season.

The NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. The calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. The NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.