CRE Transactions Stuck at Pre-Covid Pace Article originally posted on Globe St. on November 12, 2025 Commercial real estate dealmaking remained sluggish through the third quarter, with total activity “stalled at pre-Covid levels,” according to Moody’s data reported by CNBC. Although the overall dollar volume rose 5% year-over-year, analysts described the market tone as restrained and selective. Transaction data for September underscored that shift. Across roughly 1,700 deals, the average transaction size reached $12.7 million—slightly higher than a year earlier and above the two-year average of $11.2 million. Deal sizes had declined into mid-2025 before rebounding late in the quarter, suggesting renewed demand for higher-quality assets. Moody’s analysts characterized the increase as a possible “flight to quality,” but said it might also reflect improving valuations or a few large closings skewing the averages. Kevin Fagan, head of CRE capital market research at Moody’s, told GlobeSt.com that a closer look at the 50 largest transactions revealed further concentration at the top. Each deal exceeded $73 million, and 29 of those topped $100 million—a 35% jump in high-value closings compared with the third quarter of 2024. “We had a lot of volume growth and recovery after the first Fed rate hikes in 2022–2023. 2024 was a pretty good year,” Fagan told CNBC. “We saw significant volume expansion, and that really has paused given all the uncertainty in 2025—albeit for large transactions, which tend to be the higher quality properties.” Deep-pocketed buyers increasingly support those high-end deals. Fagan noted that investment capital is coming from multiple sources, including sovereign wealth funds, reflecting investors’ confidence in targeting prime assets. Office and open-air retail transactions were the standouts this quarter, led by major corporations making strategic real estate plays. Apple acquired a Sunnyvale office portfolio for $365 million. Nvidia followed with an $83 million purchase of a single office property in Santa Clara. MetLife bought an office building in Newport Beach for $108.5 million—a roughly 39% discount, while Microsoft secured similar deals in Seattle. Open-air retail saw comparable momentum. Notable transactions included Tanger’s $100 million acquisition of a retail asset and Nuveen’s $130 million purchase of another property. The hotel market, by contrast, struggled. Total deal value in the sector fell 30% in September, as economic uncertainty led to a collapse in transactions late in negotiations. “A lot of companies are cutting margins, and one of the ways they do that is to have less types of certain travel,” Fagan said. He added that the hotel slowdown could ease once federal operations return to normal, as the end of the government shutdown is expected to restore air travel staffing and logistics, improving access for both tourists and business travelers.