Poll Results: When Deals, Financing Will Pick Up

Article originally posted on Commercial Property Executive on February 13, 2023

In CPE’s latest monthly poll, commercial real estate professionals were asked about their thoughts on when the financing of new deals, as well as transaction volumes could reach more productive levels. The results reveal a significant majority seeing either the third quarter of this year or sometime in 2024 as the time in which volumes will pick up the pace in less volatile lending environments.

The vast majority of respondents see either the third quarter or 2024 as the times dealmaking would most likely be on the upswing, likely due to the Federal Reserve’s final anticipated interest rate hike in March, and a tapering-off of inflation in the summer. By and large, the market has accounted for these increases, and deals have slowed primarily due to lender and borrower pricing discrepancies. As such, 45 percent of respondents see the financing and transaction volume increases coming in the third quarter, while 40 percent see them coming next year.

On the opposite end, 10 percent see an acceleration of the above in the second quarter, while only 5 percent see it taking place in the fourth quarter. These times are in between anticipated alleviations to the current dealmaking landscape. Despite being a time when dealmaking is often at its most productive level, the fourth quarter is seen as the least likely time when transactions will pick up speed.