Five economic signals to watch that will set the business tone for 2026

Article originally posted on Phoenix Business Journal on January 5, 2026

Throughout most of 2025, economic conditions felt like operating through fog and low visibility; market signals were present, but rarely sharp. Companies, investors and households navigated with restraint as hiring slowed, financing tightened and global negotiations dragged on. Strength appeared in some pockets, uncertainty in others.

Now, that mist is beginning to clear. Early indications point to five considerations that could shape how leaders plan and position themselves for 2026:

1. Trade rules could redefine strategic planning

The past year’s shifting tariff landscape influenced business decisions more than almost any other factor. Repeated delays in international negotiations and a high-profile legal challenge over presidential tariff authority left firms unsure how to model costs. Many absorbed elevated import prices just to keep pace with competitors, while investment pipelines stalled in the absence of predictable terms. Inventory planning also grew more complicated as companies hedged against sudden policy swings. Once new guidelines settle, whether broad or incremental, the release of withheld capital could reshape corporate spending early in 2026.

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