Arizona is the big winner of the latest job data revision

Article originally posted on CoStar on September 15, 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released a preliminary look at its benchmark revision of annual job data, estimating that total U.S. nonfarm employment in March 2025 was 911,000 jobs lower than previously reported.

While the 0.6% downward revision was the largest since 2009, not all geographies were impacted equally. Eleven states saw an upward adjustment to their payrolls, led by Arizona and New York, which were both undercounted by 1.1%.

A final benchmark revision for the national data will be released in February 2026, with those for state and metropolitan areas coming out the following month.

According to the preliminary numbers, Phoenix and Tucson ranked in the top 10 for the largest increases among the 56 metropolitan areas with a population of at least 1 million.

Total employment in Phoenix was undercounted by 0.8%, tying Columbus and Sacramento for the eighth-largest upward revision. That amount translates to 19,600 more jobs than previously thought. Initial reports had the Valley registering an annual decrease of 13,100 jobs in March 2025 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, meaning job growth may have been marginally positive during the period if current estimates hold.

The boost to Tucson payrolls was even greater. The metropolitan area tied Austin, Texas, for the fourth-largest upward adjustment at 1.1%, representing an increase of 4,500 positions in Tucson. Like Phoenix, initial reports showed Tucson lost 3,700 jobs year over year in March 2025, and the latest estimates could tip the scale for head count growth into positive territory.

Job creation is a key driver of underlying demand for nearly all types of commercial real estate. Increased employment supports income and consumption growth, fueling spending at local retailers. Increased hiring is also a broad tailwind for housing and office space demand. Additionally, the larger consumer base and economic growth stemming from job gains are supportive of the industrial sector.

While the preliminary numbers were encouraging for Arizona, the full picture will not be known until the final benchmark revision is published. Last year, the preliminary data showed that Arizona employment was undercounted by 1.2%, which was later revised to an upward adjustment of 0.8%.

Nevertheless, the Copper State’s payrolls seem better positioned to benefit from revisions than most places in the country.