Consumer goods prices slightly decline in March after brief uptick

Article originally posted on HERE on April 10, 2026

In good news for shoppers, a bump in the cost of consumer goods reversed course in March 2026.

Prices for everyday household purchases decreased 0.02% in March 2026 following a 0.19% increase in February and a 0.33% decrease in January. The monthly Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) also indicates that  prices for everyday goods are up 2% compared to March 2025.A similar trend is expected for the comparable categories covered in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

“March’s data reinforces that the path back to price stability will remain uneven,” said Paul Stanley, senior economist, Numerator. “While cooling inflation is welcome news, escalating tensions in the Middle East pose a renewed risk, with rising costs across supply chains that could put upward pressure on prices in the months ahead. That uncertainty is showing up differently across households: according to our March sentiment data, lower-income consumers remain focused on rising prices, while higher-income households are more concerned about global conflicts that could shape inflation in the months ahead.”

Additional key findings from Numerator’s March CGPI include:

• Low income and Gen Z consumers are experiencing higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods as prices have increased 33.5% and 35.4% respectively for those groups since January 2018 compared to the 31.6% national average.
• Regionally, consumers in the South census region have experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018, though the Midwest has seen higher month-over-month inflation during the past few months.

Meanwhile, recent data from Circana shows that total U.S. retail sales revenue, across discretionary general merchandise, retail food and beverage, and non-edible consumer packaged goods, was up 2% year over year for the first 10 weeks of 2026.

The Numerator CPGI is calculated from verified, item-level transactions provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends. The dataset uses verified household purchase data from the demand side.