Fed’s December Rate Cut Odds Fade as Data Gaps Cloud Outlook Article originally posted on Globe St. on November 17, 2025 Investor confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting is fading fast, as policymakers signal a growing divide over whether resilient economic activity still warrants further easing. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, what had been a roughly two-to-one likelihood of a cut has now shifted to a narrower 44.4% chance versus 55.6% odds for holding steady. The futures market for Fed funds, often unreliable when projecting well in advance, tends to sharpen its focus as decision day approaches. But the latest shift reflects more than market sentiment—it stems from a widening data void and mixed signals from within the Federal Reserve. Officials must steer monetary policy without key guideposts, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the jobs and real earnings reports for September, delayed by the shutdown, won’t be released until November 20 and 21. There is still no word on the timing of the October or November data. At an event hosted by the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin last week, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she is keeping an open mind as deliberations begin. “I haven’t made a final decision on what I think, and I’m looking forward to debating with my colleagues,” she said, according to Reuters. Daly has previously supported rate cuts, though she stopped short of reaffirming that stance. Other officials voiced growing caution. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg News on November 13 that he sees “underlying resilience in economic activity, more than I had expected,” adding that “depending on how the data goes, I can make a case to cut, I can make a case to hold.” Though he does not vote in December’s meeting, Kashkari participates in the discussions and had earlier anticipated two additional cuts this year. Boston Fed President Susan Collins, speaking at her bank’s 24th Annual Regional & Community Bankers Conference on November 12, said it will likely be “appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time” given the balance of inflation and employment risks. “Although monetary policy is still mildly restrictive, broad financial conditions are a tailwind, not a headwind, for economic growth,” she said, noting that both household and business demand remain resilient. The central bank could still trim rates again in December, but the case for doing so is becoming murkier. With economic data delayed, inflation stubborn and internal divisions widening, the central bank faces an increasingly uncertain path as its final meeting of the year approaches.