Is Arizona still a hot spot for growth? Here’s what a new study says

Article originally posted on AZ Central on January 6, 2026

Arizona was among the top growth states nationally, according to U-Haul’s Growth Index migration data, but the state did slide down a spot in the ranking, reaching seventh place in 2025, as compared to sixth in 2024.

The study analyzes one-way trips taken by U-Haul customers to assess inbound and outbound moves. Inbound trips to Arizona slightly outpaced outbound trips, with 50.3% of Arizona trips arriving in the state and 49.7% leaving it. The index used data from more than 2.5 million one-way trips each year across the United States and Canada.

Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee and South Carolina were the overall top 5 growth states nationally in 2025. Washington ranked sixth, edging out Arizona.

“In metro Phoenix, Tucson, Prescott Valley, Dewey-Humboldt … all of these places have lots of new housing developments going up to accommodate the growth,” Joe Kruerger, U-Haul area district vice president of Arizona, said in a statement. “We see microchip plants and data centers going up in metro Phoenix. These are bringing a lot of jobs to the state.”

According to U-Haul’s midyear migration trends report released in July 2025, the most common metros of origin for people moving to Phoenix were Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Denver, Salt Lake City and Seattle.

The data reflects trends some Arizona economists pointed out, that while Arizona is still a growth state, the pace is likely slowing.

“Arizona remains a growth state, a net in-migration state,” Luis Cordova, senior vice president and COO of Rounds Consulting Group, said in December. “But the trend is softening.”

Arizona was long a recipient of strong in-migration from states with a higher cost of living, because it was more affordable and much of the economy depended on growth, Cordova said. Now, the economy is more diverse, with higher-earning jobs that aren’t solely focused on homebuilding and construction, which has attracted higher earners but has also made the cost of living increase, he said.

According to U-Haul’s data, California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts had the largest net losses, respectively. It was California’s sixth year in a row ranking last on the list, but researchers noted it had a smaller net loss in 2025 than it did in 2024.