Leading economic index turns positive for first time in four years

Article originally posted on CoStar on August 21, 2026

Economic activity showed signs of strengthening in July, pointing to continued growth in the months ahead, according to data from the Conference Board.

The research group said its Leading Economic Index, a closely watched measure of future economic activity, rose 0.2% in July. The index’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in four years.

The index combines 10 forward-looking indicators, including unemployment claims, manufacturing orders, building permits, stock prices and consumer expectations. Most components contributed positively in July, although consumer expectations remained suppressed.

“The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board. 

The organization maintained its forecast for 1.9% U.S. real GDP growth in both 2026 and 2027.