MBA Forecasts 29% Rise in CRE Loan Volume for 2024

Article originally posted on HERE on January 23, 2024

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to rise to $576 billion in 2024, a 29% increase from 2023’s estimated total of $444 billion. That’s according to an updated baseline forecast released Tuesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Multifamily lending alone is expected to rise to $339 billion this year, up 25% from last year’s estimate of $271 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending next year will increase to $717 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $404 billion of that total in multifamily lending.

“2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. “As the markets reset – on interest rates, property values, some property fundamentals and other factors – those volumes should pick up marginally. While up from last year’s levels, we still expect borrowing and lending in 2024 to be below what was seen going back to 2017.”