Multifamily, CRE Originations Poised to Climb in 2026

Article originally posted on Multifamily Executive on February 12, 2026

An increase in lending in commercial real estate (CRE) at the end of last year is pointing to an even stronger 2026.

Commercial and multifamily lending is expected to increase to $805.5 billion this year, a 27% bump from last year’s estimated total of $633.7 billion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association at its recent Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo. Multifamily lending on its own is projected to increase by 21% from last year’s estimate of $330.6 billion to $399.2 billion in 2026.

“The CRE lending market showed strength throughout 2025. Commercial originations increased year over year during the first six months, and this growth continued in the second half of the year,” said Judith Ricks, associate vice president of CREF Research. “The multifamily market experienced similar strength throughout the year, and that is expected to continue in 2026. We believe much of this activity came from refinance and acquisition activity as borrowers were able to take advantage of relatively favorable rates. As a result, we expect this to reduce the amount of mortgage debt scheduled to mature over the next few years.”

“The job market is softening, driven primarily by a slowdown in hiring, while the pace of layoffs is beginning to pick up. Inflation is likely to rise further, at least in part due to the pass-through of tariffs to consumers,” he said. “MBA forecasts that GDP grew 2.3% in 2025 but will slow in the next two years, with growth projections of 1.9% this year and 1.7% in 2027. The unemployment rate will average 4.5% in 2026, up from 4.3% in 2025.”

The MBA expects only one cut in the federal funds target this year. “Persistently large federal budget deficits, and growing pressure on sovereign debt markets worldwide, will put pressure on the longer-term rates, and we expect further steepening of the Treasury yield curve as a result,” Fratantoni said.

In addition, the MBA forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will average 4.2% this year, noting this macro environment and growing confidence that property values have stabilized will support strong origination growth.

Although the maturity wall has diminished somewhat, many loans are maturing in 2026 and will need to be refinanced. According to the MBA, 17%, or $875 billion, of the $5 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by lenders and investors is scheduled to mature this year, a 9% drop from the $975 billion that was scheduled to mature in 2025. Among loans backed by multifamily properties, 13% will mature this year.

“While commercial mortgages remain elevated in 2026, the 9% decline from 2025 suggests that the market is beginning to move past the peak of the maturity wave in recent years,” said Reggie Booker, associate vice president of commercial/multifamily research. “The variation across investor types and property sectors underscores the importance of asset quality, capital structure, and lender flexibility as borrowers navigate refinancing decisions in changing market conditions.”

Fratantoni noted that even though longer-term interest rates were little changed over last year, lenders were no longer extending loan terms.

“$875 billion in scheduled maturities in 2026 and $652 billion in 2027 will fuel additional lending activity, and stabilization in property values will also continue to increase transaction activity,” he said. “All in, these trends lead us to forecast stronger years for origination volume, even though we are forecasting that the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its current rate-cutting cycle.”