Multifamily Supply Surges: Yardi Matrix Raises Forecast Through 2028 Article originally posted on Globe St. on February 5, 2026 Yardi Matrix has updated its Q1 2026 multifamily supply forecast after earlier forecasts that assumed the slowdown in new-construction activity recorded in 2024 would continue into 2025 proved incorrect. The revised forecast no longer anticipates that new supply will bottom out in 2027 at or below 400,000 units. The under-construction pipeline declined more slowly than anticipated, ending the fourth quarter at roughly 950,968 units, a 1.6% drop quarter-over-quarter and a 17.3% decrease compared with the March 2024 peak of 1.27 million units. The slower decline reflects continued resilience in new construction starts, particularly in markets tracked by Yardi Matrix for at least 24 months. During the third quarter, multifamily construction starts tracked by Yardi Matrix totaled roughly 98,920 units, bringing full-year 2025 starts to an estimated 322,061, which is about 3.4% above 2024 levels. While Q4 data remains incomplete, national starts could approach or exceed 450,000 units for the year. The 2026 forecast is now up 6.4% to 468,731 units; the 2027 forecast completions are up 8.1% to 439,571 units and the 2028 forecast is up 8.9% to 447,505 units. Broader economic activity is expected to support multifamily demand in 2026, with fiscal stimulus boosting incomes and employment, while sluggish existing-home sales will underpin rental growth. These factors are likely to sustain rental rate growth and absorption of new supply, the report said. Affordable and partially affordable properties are an increasing share of new multifamily supply, supporting overall development even as market-rate completions decline from 2025 highs. SFR-BTR has also grown in prominence, rising from 2% of new supply in 2020 to 8% in 2025. While market-rate properties are expected to decline 31% by 2028, to 260,074 units, partially and fully affordable supply is projected to remain near current-cycle highs, together comprising roughly 36% of total new supply. The proportion of affordable units within partially affordable properties has remained stable at around 22% over the past five years, reflecting continued municipal and developer focus on housing affordability. Looking ahead, Yardi Matrix expects steady rental rate growth and absorption. Markets in the Midwest, Northeast and Coastal areas that did not experience a large post-pandemic supply surge are expected to see continued steady new deliveries, while Sun Belt and Mountain West markets that experienced sharp post-pandemic increases in rents and construction will see completions normalize to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, the longer-term forecast models new supply stabilizing around 455,000 annual units through 2030 and 2031, according to Yardi Matrix.