No Move From the Fed, But Market Forces Still in Motion Article originally posted on Globe St. on January 29, 2026 For the first time since July 2025, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged—a move widely expected across markets as policymakers hold steady amid balanced but uncertain economic signals. Analysts say the same could follow in March as the Fed watches to see how past rate cuts ripple through the economy and inflation trends. “Given the more likely FOMC view that dual risks of inflation and unemployment are mostly in balance, we should not expect any change in policy at the March meeting,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, in a note. Eric Teal, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, said the central bank’s wait-and-see stance reflects caution as it evaluates the lagging effects of earlier moves. “The unemployment rate has stabilized, and inflation remains sticky with uncertainty lingering around tariff policy,” he said. “There is justification for the ‘wait and see’ approach given the potential for a ‘second wave’ of higher prices as the tariff pass-through rate increases.” The decision has left analysts divided over what it means for 2026 mortgage rates. “The Fed’s holding pattern clouds the picture for mortgage rates in 2026,” wrote Eric Orenstein, senior director at Fitch Ratings. “After steadily declining for the last eight months, it’s unclear if and when they will pass the critical 6% mark.” Still, some in real estate see stability as a temporary anchor for deal-making rather than a constraint. “This decision keeps the real estate market in a rate environment it has already been adjusting to over the past several months,” wrote Josh Winefsky, a partner in HSFK’s real estate practice. “What it reinforces is that while rates may not be moving down as quickly as some had hoped, there is now greater clarity around where they’ve settled. For investors, lenders and owners, that clarity is important because it allows deals to be structured with more confidence around financing assumptions and return expectations. In the near term, this should translate into steady deal activity as people grow more comfortable operating within these conditions, rather than waiting for the next move from the Fed.” Even so, the Fed is far from the only influence shaping borrowing costs. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump urged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds in hopes to lower consumer mortgage rates. The markets budged only slightly before steadying again. “It’s $200 billion, not $5 trillion,” Echo Fine Properties CEO Jeff Lichtenstein told GlobeSt.com. “Sentiment changes quickly but the market mechanics take months,” said Jeff Klotz, CEO of the Klotz Group of Companies. “As a population, we still move in a herd mentality. The market cares less about the headlines than the changes of the marginal buyer of mortgage-backed securities.” No single factor, from Fed policy to mortgage bond purchases, wholly determines mortgage rates. “Mortgage rates are impacted by a variety of factors, including a mix of long-term Treasury yields, expectations for inflation and wider Fed policy,” said Marjorie Patton, regional director at LoopNet. Brett Forman, managing partner of Forman Capital, echoed that sentiment, noting that even Fed rate cuts might not translate directly to cheaper financing. “My concern is that the U.S. government is the largest borrower, and with global and macro events, the bond buyers may not simply buy and absorb the massive debt levels at lower yields,” he said.