Population gains occur unevenly throughout the Greater Phoenix area

Article originally posted on CoStar on May 28, 2025

Newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau provides a more granular look at which cities and towns within the Phoenix metropolitan statistical area (MSA) have powered the Valley’s strong demographic momentum.

In the four-year period from July 1, 2020, to July 1, 2024, the Phoenix MSA’s total population grew by 311,300 people, the fourth-most in the nation. That amount equates to a 6.4% increase, the 10th-most in the United States among metropolitan areas with at least 1 million people, edging out Nashville, Tennessee, to make the top 10. For comparison, the country as a whole grew by 2.6% during the same period.

Within the Greater Phoenix area, the U.S. Census Bureau identifies 28 discrete cities and towns that have at least 5,000 residents. Just six of the 28 notched flat or negative population growth from 2020 to 2024, with 22 expanding.

The areas posting the strongest population growth were often in the Valley’s more affordable second-ring suburbs and exurbs. Pinal County, which comprises about 10% of the Phoenix MSA population, captured five of the top-10 fastest-growing cities, led by Coolidge’s 46.5% increase from 2020 to 2024.

Other standouts include Casa Grande and the city of Maricopa, both of which recorded rates of population growth in excess of 25%. These areas boast lower costs of living, more available land and have been a popular option for manufacturers looking to build out their operations.

Similarly, the Valley’s west-side suburbs have been population magnets. Areas like Tolleson, Buckeye, Goodyear and Surprise are relatively affordable and have ample developable land for new residential and commercial construction. These cities all recorded cumulative population growth of 15% or more from 2020 to 2024.

The West Valley’s strong demographics drew the attention of multifamily developers, causing completions to surge throughout the area over the past few years.

Since the start of 2020, more than 22,000 gross new apartment units have been constructed in the North West Valley and South West Valley submarkets, representing about 25% of Phoenix’s total supply additions.

The Southeast Valley town of Queen Creek also notched strong population growth, expanding 37.6% over the past four years. The area straddles the border between Pinal and Maricopa counties and benefits from similar drivers of Phoenix’s other high-growth cities, like land availability and relative affordability.

While Gilbert’s 7.2% population increase lags that of smaller areas on the market’s outskirts, the gain remains impressive when accounting for its size. Gilbert is the third-largest city in the Greater Phoenix area, boasting a total population of nearly 290,000 people. Gilbert ranked ninth in the country for population growth from 2020 to 2024 among the more than 90 cities and towns with at least 250,000 people.

Similarly, the city of Phoenix’s population growth of 60,600 people ranked fifth in the nation on an absolute basis.

Population growth is a key driver for both economic growth and underlying demand for nearly all types of commercial real estate.

The structural drivers attracting residents to Phoenix remain intact. The area remains relatively affordable compared to expensive coastal markets and has a growing and diversifying local economy, attractive weather and a lower regulatory burden. As a result, the Valley commercial real estate market remains well-positioned to benefit from demographic momentum over the near term.