One-Bedroom Rents Break Into Positive Territory For The First Time Since 2025 Article originally posted on Globe St. on July 1, 2026 After months of “stickily low” rents in markets weighed down by new supply, the latest Zumper National Rent Report shows the median national one‑bedroom rent rising 0.5% month-over-month in June to $1,526, which is up 0.4% year-over-year. That marks the first positive annual reading for one‑bedroom units since May 2025 and suggests that a long stretch of flat or declining rents may be giving way to a new phase of gradual growth. Two‑bedroom units followed their smaller unit counterpart, with rents ticking up 0.1% month-over-month to $1,905, though they remain slightly below their year‑ago levels. These modest national increases are occurring as occupancy slowly improves. New deliveries are starting to drop and recently completed properties are making headway on lease‑up, which is helping to firm pricing in many markets. Even so, the national averages tell only part of the story. The real action and the real divergence are at the metro level. Coastal Markets Regain Pricing Power In high‑barrier coastal markets, limited new supply is allowing landlords to reclaim pricing power more quickly. San Francisco and New York City sit at the top of the one‑bedroom rent ranking, underscoring how scarcity and strong demand are driving the national trend. One‑bedroom rents in New York City lead the country at $4,660, with San Francisco close behind at $4,060. Boston places a distant third at $2,950, followed by Jersey City, San Jose, Miami, Arlington, urban Honolulu, Washington, D.C. and San Diego at $2,220. Chicago, which has historically ranked among the most expensive markets, has dropped out of the top ten, highlighting how even major cities can slip when supply and demand fall out of balance. In the Bay Area, rent growth has been particularly striking. Annual one‑bedroom rent increases in San Francisco are running at 21.9%, the highest in the nation, while Oakland and San Jose are also seeing solid gains in the mid‑single‑digit range. The report links this strength to the region’s AI‑driven boom and a surge in office leasing, which is pulling high‑income earners back into the city amid a notably thin construction pipeline. With occupancy above 96% and very little new product coming online, San Francisco is experiencing the “textbook squeeze” that pushes rents sharply higher. Oversupplied Metros Still Digest New Units Not all markets are sharing in this upswing. In metros that saw aggressive construction over the past few years, especially across the Sun Belt, rents remain under pressure even as the national one‑bedroom index turns positive. Three Texas markets — Houston, Austin and San Antonio — rank among those with the steepest median one‑bedroom rent declines. Henderson, Nevada, and Memphis also appear on the list of metros where rents are still declining rather than rising. In Arizona, the pattern is similar: annual one‑bedroom rents are still declining in Mesa, Phoenix, Glendale and Tucson. While the rate of decline has moderated to the low single digits, it is still sufficient to signal that landlords in these cities have not yet regained pricing traction. Only Gilbert and Scottsdale have posted annual gains, with Scottsdale showing the strongest uptick. Phoenix illustrates how a heavy supply pipeline can weigh on performance. The market is working to absorb more than 26,000 new rental units delivered in 2025, and vacancy has climbed into the double digits. With renters holding the leverage, concessions such as a month or more of free rent have become common across the metro. Conditions like these stand in sharp contrast to the scarcity‑driven pricing environment in places like San Francisco and New York City. For investors, the return to positive national one‑bedroom rent growth is an encouraging data point, but the real story lies in how sharply outcomes diverge by market. In inventory‑constrained coastal gateways, modest national averages mask aggressive rent increases at the top end. In oversupplied metros still digesting last cycle’s construction, it may take more time and further absorption — before rent growth looks anything like the national headline.